The USDA’s latest WASDE report, released 12th July, highlighted a 4.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) decline in the US soybean production estimate for the 2023/24 season on lower harvested area, as reported by Mintec here. The decline in US production to 117 million metric tonnes brings global output estimates down by 1.3% m-o-m, with production estimates for Brazil and Argentina unchanged on the month. Despite them-o-m cut in US production, the CBOT soybean futures price (Jul-23) settled at USc 1,448.4/60 lb bushels on 12th July, following the release of the report, as the market expected a much steeper cut to production, evident in the price rally over the past weeks. Also notable in the report was a 14.3% m-o-m downward revision to the US ending stocks for the 2023/24 season to 8.2 million metric tonnes. Similarly, the decline was not as steep as market participants expected, with the average trade estimate before the report’s release at 5.4 million metric tonnes. US exports and crush are projected to decline by 6.3% m-o-m and 0.4% m-o-m, respectively. While China’s soybean import was estimated at 99 million metric tonnes, down by 1 million metric tonnes from June, the country’s demand will be a watch point in the coming months, as imports have risen sharply in the past month.