The USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report, released 29th September, showed soybean stocks in all positions (on farm and off farm) on 1st September 2023 down by 2% to 268 million bushels compared to the same period last year. However, the reported level came in higher than market players expected, which ranged from 216-279 million bushels, as Mintec highlighted here. Consequently, the CBOT soybean futures price was pressured following the release of the report, settling at USc 1,275/60 lbs bushels, down 2.0% from the previous day. Furthermore, the USDA revised the 2022/23 season (Oct ’22-Sept ’23) US soybean output estimate down by 5.93 million bushels to 4.27 billion bushels (116.2 million metric tonnes) based on the stock results.
The latest USDA Crop Progress report highlighted an improvement to the US soybean crop condition in the week ending 1st October. The US soybean crop rated to be good-to-excellent condition was recorded at 52%, a 2-percentage point (p.p) improvement compared to the previous week’s rating, albeit lower by 3 p.p y-o-y and 10 p.p compared to the ten-year average. The states of Illinois, North Dakota and Missouri noted the most improvements on the week, with a 6 p.p, 6 p.p and 4 p.p recovery in good-to-excellent conditions, respectively. Also, the US soybean harvested reached 23% in the same week, falling within market participants' expectations of 21-30%, an 11 p.p rise compared to the previous week and 3 p.p higher y-o-y.