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Pricing Team Weekly Update May 10

May 10, 2021

1 mins read

 

  • The latest updates form the Mintec Pricing Team:
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  • * Arabica coffee futures continued to rally, with a weaker USD, going Brazil production concerns and a new influx of speculative buying supporting prices. Managed money added nearly 4,000 lots to their net long position on the week, taking it to 39,165. ICE certified stocks continue to grow, and Colombia looks to have exceeded 14m bags of production in 20/21, however current port strikes in Colombia are hampering the pace of exports.
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  • * London Cocoa futures sagged early in the week, with JUL21 closing at £1,578/mt on Tuesday, before staging a recovery later in the week. London prices were buoyed by a weaker USD and increasing NY terminal to close at £1,645/mt. Production views for both 20/21 and 21/22 generally remain bullish, although there are some muted concerns about recent dry weather and how that might impact pod development for the main crop later this year.
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  • * The Mintec Benchmark Price for Palm Oil Crude spot CIF Rotterdam (CPOR) gained $60.50/mt (+5%) on the week owing to the strength of the wider and competing vegetable oil complex, in particular price moves from soybean oil. Moreover, worries around production and a lack of supply, particularly on the nearby, caused some buyers to look to consign which was constructive for prices.
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  • * Trading was muted in the almond market over the last assessment period ahead of two large data releases due out this week: the April position report, which is due out on Tuesday (11 May) and the USDA subjective estimate which is due to be released on Wednesday (12 May). Several market participants noted that sellers were quiet ahead of the release with an expectation that positive figures will help boost prices. For the subjective estimate the majority of people surveyed by Mintec ahead of the release projected a figure of between 2.90-2.95 billion pounds, similar to current estimates.
Andrew Moriarty
Andrew Moriarty

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