In early September, some cases of African Swine Fever (ASF) were confirmed in Germany, Europe’s largest pork producer (as per the Ministry of Infrastructure and Agriculture of Brandenburg, Germany). This recent incidence has led China to ban German pork imports and could hamper Germany’s pork exports to the global market.
Mintec’s German pork price declined by 11% q-o-q to EUR 1.55/kg (on 2nd Sep 2020), and the recent ASF incidence could exacerbate the bearish trend. China is the largest export destination for EU pork and accounted for more than half of EU pork shipments in H1 2020, as per the European Commission. Following the news of the ASF outbreak, China (the largest global pork consumer) has banned pork imports from Germany, which could leave the German market with surplus pork. This ban is intended to protect the affected animal husbandry industry and intercept the disease spread.
While the restrictions could add to headwinds for German pork exports, other markets such as the US, Canada, Brazil, Spain and Demark could benefit from the ban. US pork exports to China have seen dramatic growth since the start of the year, as the ASF outbreak in China decimated more than half of its pig population. China’s aim to rebuild its herd size and state reserves makes China’s position in the global pork import market even more significant.
On the positive note, “regionalisation” rules would protect German exports in the EU, which is likely to prevent prices from falling further. However, the export ban from its top importer and high supplies in the EU market are projected to weigh on German pork prices in the short-term.