In the last few weeks, there have been no significant movements in the grain market as market players are waiting for the September WASDE report estimates, which will be published on Tuesday, 12th September 2023. Market players report that this month's report release will serve as a crucial price determinant in the short term. Currently, market players are focused on the weather outcomes across regions (EU, the US, Australia and Argentina) and geopolitical events in the Black Sea.
Market analysts expect that the USDA will most likely trim its US corn production to 381,200 million mt versus 383,832 million mt the previous month, down 0.7% month-on-month (m-o-m). The decline in production is driven by continued hot and dry weather that has already left the US corn crop rating the lowest since 2012 (53% good-to-excellent conditions). Some market players have adjusted lower US corn yield expectations to 10.89 mt/ha versus 10.99 mt/ha the previous month, down 0.9% m-o-m, and should the adverse weather persist, further decline could be anticipated which could tighten the balance sheet and lead to upward price pressure. Nevertheless, the expected yield losses should be somewhat offset by higher acreages.