The Mintec price of Indian mangoes decreased by 61% to INR 18,500/MT in the 3-month period to 26th May 2021. The price fall can be attributed to a decline in domestic and export demand amid a second wave of COVID-19 across India.
The second wave of COVID-19 and the mango harvest season in 2021 have occurred during the same period. COVID-19`s impact on the Indian mango market has been primarily on demand, because of India’s strict lockdowns in states such as Maharashtra, a top producer of mangoes. In terms of supply, COVID-19 has largely had a muted impact. Accordingly, mango production is forecast to increase by 4.2% year-on-year to 21.12 million tonnes for the 2020/21 marketing year.
Mango exports have declined in May, compared to earlier in the 2021 season, due to tighter restrictions imposed on flights from India. The UK, Europe and the UAE, key markets for Indian mangoes, in recent times have closed their borders to Indian flights, in order to protect their own country from escalating COVID-19 infections. Meanwhile, mango exports to the US have been restricted, with the US and India unable to come up with a solution regarding inspections and certifications.
Lower domestic and export demand has led to an oversupplied Indian mango market. Farmers have endured low domestic prices for 2021 and have been affected by higher shipping rates due to a lack of container availability. Shipping rates have deterred farmers from exporting to new markets in the current environment, amid ample supply.
Considering these fundamentals, the Mintec price of Indian mangoes is projected to remain in the INR 15,000-20,000/MT region over the next few months.