Global sunflower oil fundamentals from the USDA are showing high global production figures for the current 2018/19 season. April estimates released show production at 19.4m tonnes for 2018/19 for the oil, a 7% increase y-o-y and a considerable 33% increase when compared to the previous 10-year average.
This upsurge is predominately from growth in supply from major producers and exporters Ukraine and Russia. Consequently, we are seeing a 13% y-o-y fall in Mintec prices for sunflower oil from Ukraine and 1% decrease from Russia. Mintec prices are also seeing a 12% y-o-y fall in the EU due to high global supply.
Russia and Ukraine have been increasing their harvested area over the last few years, up 23% and 17% respectively when compared to the 10-year average. However, for the 2018/19 season, the production area in Ukraine is expected to have decreased slightly, down 4% y-o-y.
Ideal weather conditions are resulting in an expected increase in production of the oilseed. Currently, sunflower oil has a good profit margin when compared to competitor oils which is why it has become a popular crop; however, if production becomes too high, a decline in prices could see profit margins erode
As well as Ukraine, early warm weather has been seen in Russia. This has resulted in both Ukraine and Russia having early preparations for sowing, weeks ahead of schedule for the April sowing season.