The average orange juice price in the US was down 34% y-o-y in June 2019, due to higher stocks held in the country.
In June, the stocks in the US were up 21% y-o-y, weighing on the prices. There are 48 weeks of stocks in the US, which usually sits at 26 weeks at this time. Therefore, high inventory is being held as the crucial factor driving the market. Orange processing for the 2018/19 season has already finished in Florida, therefore, the orange prices are also remaining low in the state.
In addition, the other main market drivers over the next couple of months include the trees stripping in late July/early August, the hurricane season and growing conditions in Brazil. Furthermore, the orange crop condition in Mexico would play a major role in driving the prices of the US orange juice market. The Mexican orange crop is estimated to be smaller in 2019/20 due to a large crop in 2018/19.