Global walnut production is projected to reach 2.6m tonnes (in-shell basis) in 2022/23, according to the recently published Tree Nuts report by the USDA. If achieved, this would represent an increase of 12% year-on-year (y-o-y).
Production in China, the largest walnut producer, is estimated to jump by 27% y-o-y in 2022/23 to 1.4m tonnes, owing to favourable growing conditions. Following the production increase, Chinese walnut exports are set to grow by 6% y-o-y to 225,000 tonnes on rising shipments to China’s key markets including Kazakhstan, UAE and Turkey, according to the USDA.
The US walnut production is forecast to decline slightly in 2022/23, by 1% y-o-y, to 653,000 tonnes. Nonetheless, this is an increase of 1% on the five-year average. Walnut exports from the US are projected to fall by 3% y-o-y to 485,000 tonnes, due to lower shipments to the EU, Turkey and UAE.
Elsewhere, the USDA anticipates Ukrainian walnut production is set to contract by 17% y-o-y due to the lost harvest in conflict areas in eastern Ukraine. The 2021/22 production in Chile (crop harvested between March and May 2022), the largest Southern Hemisphere producer of walnuts, is estimated to amount to 153,000 tonnes (-5% y-o-y). For the upcoming campaign, the USDA pegs the output in Chile at 165,000 tonnes.
The Mintec Benchmark Prices (MBP) for Chandler 80% walnuts FAS US continue to fall, having last been assessed in the final week of October at USD 2.30/lbs, a decline of 6% month-on-month (m-o-m) and down 43% y-o-y. Prices have been pressured by weaker demand from key consumer markets, for halves in particular according to industry participants.