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Firm demand supports Norwegian whitefish prices through November, while China's COVID-19 policy weighs on Russian pollock price

Written by Ibi Idoniboye | Dec 8, 2022 4:14:28 PM

At NOK 29,727/MT, the quarterly average catch price for Norwegian Atlantic cod increased by NOK 1,378/MT (+4.9%) q-o-q during Sep-Nov ‘22. Since dipping by 16% m-o-m in October, the cod price gained 12% m-o-m in November and look set to pass the all-time high price before the year-end. Strong seasonal demand from Europe and Asia are the main supporting factors. This is most notable in the UK, where the 35% import tax on Russian seafood has prompted more demand for Norwegian whitefish. The latest average quarterly cod price surpassed the same period of the previous year more substantially, by NOK 8,144/MT (+37.7%), due to higher fuel, energy and labour costs, as well as some regional supply tightness.

The average price of Norwegian haddock for the Sep-Nov ‘22 quarter increased by NOK 3,622/MT q-o-q to NOK 17,473/MT, which is the highest average for the Sep-Nov quarter in over a decade. Indeed, the haddock price increased by almost 75% during the six months ending November 2022. The haddock price has escalated, partly due to the wider inflationary pressures related to fuel, energy, and labour costs. It is also aligned with low availability from Iceland, another major catch nation, where the main fishing quota season lags that of the other north Atlantic fishing nations.

The price of Russian-caught Alaska pollock fell by RUB 17.2/kg during the five months ending November 2022 to RUB 119.2/kg, which was the lowest monthly average price since November 2021. As a major buyer and processor of Russian pollock, the continued restrictions on Chinese borders associated with its ‘zero COVID’ policy and port delays have significantly impacted the demand for Russian Alaska pollock. As such, Russia is facing a domestic glut of pollock. However, despite dropping by RUB 5.5/kg (-4.3%) q-o-q during Sep-Nov ‘22, the pollock price surpassed the same period of the previous year by RUB 8.4/kg (+7.4%), which may be attributed to energy cost inflation.