According to the latest EU Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) crop monitoring report (published 18th September), corn yield estimates in Europe have been downgraded by 3% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 7.26mt/ha due to continued hot and dry weather conditions in Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. Eastern parts of France (in Rhone Alpes) have also experienced a heatwave in the second half of August, which affected rainfed crops, while in the northern parts of France, summer crop conditions were favourable. The EU sunflower yield estimates have also declined by 1% m-o-m to 2.20mt/ha due to a worsened outlook in Romania and Bulgaria, though the estimates have been offset by an upward revision in sunflower yields for France and Hungary. Yield predictions in Romania and Bulgaria were aligned with market players' averages; however, several market analysts believe that last month's drier weather has not been fully incorporated, thus they anticipate a slight further decrease in final corn and sunflower yields. In Romania, together with hot temperatures, soil moisture declined to critically low levels in eastern and southern areas during the key filling period for corn and sunflowers. As a result, corn yields in Romania were downgraded to 4.30mt/ha and in Bulgaria to 5.27mt/ha, well below the historical trends and the five-year average (5.39mt/ha and 6.08mt/ha, respectively).
In Germany, the winter crop harvest has finished but market players are largely worried about the quality of wheat due to excessive rains from mid-July to mid-August. Furthermore, intense rains may have caused elevated pest/disease pressure due to excess water, most prominently in the south of Germany. Therefore, corn yield estimates are lowered and are similar to the five-year average of 9.06mt/ha.
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