The Euronext wheat price increased by 5% to EUR 253.7/MT in the last two weeks to 29th September 2021. Prices are trending higher on the back of 2021/22 wheat production estimate revisions by the USDA, which fuelled concerns over harvest setbacks in major exporting countries. Russia and Canada lead the way with a combined downward revision of 25 million tonnes year-on-year.
In addition, Euronext wheat continues to be supported by strong export demand, driven by a weakening Euro against the US Dollar. At the end of August, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), the world’s top wheat importer, purchased 180,000 tonnes of wheat; two shipments of 60,000 tonnes were of Romanian and Ukrainian origin. During the second week of September, GASC bought 300,000 tonnes of wheat, which included 240,000 tonnes of Ukrainian origin and 60,000 tonnes of Russian origin. Export prices of Russian wheat, of which Egypt is the main purchaser, have increased over 2% in the last four weeks to RUB 17,125/MT on 22nd September 2021. Rumours about an additional increase in Russian export tax could lead to further cuts in Russian exports, limiting global availability thus, supporting wheat prices in the short term.