EU rapeseed production is expected to be higher in 2021/22 according to market participants, however Strategie Grains (SG) still sees overall supply remaining tight. The SG forecast for 2021/22 EU rapeseed production is currently at 17.03 million tonnes, 2.5% higher year-on-year (y-o-y). With 2020/21 global production being historically weaker due to poor weather conditions in the EU and Canada, a relatively small increase in production y-o-y will still mean supply is relatively tight. The SG forecast for 2021/22 is still 3.5% lower than the EU five-year average. Furthermore, heavy rains at the beginning of summer in Europe have raised some concerns over crop damage.
Therefore, the outlook for EU rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices remains firm, given the global deficit in the market. SG also expects ending stocks to end lower in 2021/22 than in 2020/21, in line with lower imports from Australia and Canada, due to their elevated prices, and higher expected EU exports on the back of coronavirus recovery demand.
The price of Euronext rapeseed was last recorded at EUR 537/MT on 28th July, up 1.4% m-o-m and 8.9% q-o-q. Based on the current expectations of tightness within the market, the resulting firm price trend in 2021/22 could encourage European farmers to plant more rapeseed next year.