EU wheat yields for the 2019/20 marketing year have been revised down by around 2 million tonnes by Strategie Grains, from 142.8 million tonnes to 140.6 million tonnes. This is following a heatwave during late June throughout Europe, especially in western Europe. However, EU wheat production is forecast to remain 11% above the production seen in 2018, as it is believed extreme temperatures have not lasted long enough to cause severe crop losses as seen during last year's drought.
Revisions were made to wheat production in Germany, Spain and Poland, by 700,000 tonnes, 600,000 tonnes and 400,000 tonnes respectively. Whilst estimates for France, the EU's biggest wheat producer, remain at 37 million tonnes, up 9% y-o-y. The Mintec price for EU wheat has been trending up since mid-May, up 7% between the 15th May and 10th July.
The EU barley production forecast for 2019/20 has also been reduced by Strategie Grains, to a total of 59.3 million tonnes from 59.6 million in June. However, volume levels are still above last year’s harvest – up 6% y-o-y.
EU maize production forecast has also been cut by 700,000 tonnes to 62.7 million tonnes as it is anticipated that EU maize plants were also affected by the rise in temperature. Although, production is estimated to remain higher than the 2018 levels.