Chinese soyabean stocks have fallen to their lowest levels since early February, following heavy rains which caused cargo loading delays in Brazil (a primary exporter for China) - according to China’s National Grain and Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC). As a result, Chinese soyabean prices on the Dalian exchange have risen 4% since 19th March, to CNY 4183/MT on 26th March.
Stocks fell 140,000 tonnes w-o-w to 5.05 million tonnes on 25th March, down 650,000 tonnes m-o-m, the lowest in six weeks. This is still an increase of 1.97 million tonnes y-o-y. With crush volumes rising 120,000 w-o-w to 1.57 million tonnes during the period, stocks continued to decline steadily, while soyabean crush production volumes remained unchanged w-o-w at 760,000 tonnes.
Chinese soyabean oil stocks declined over the seven-day period, in line with strong domestic demand. Previously weaker soyabean meal demand, and subsequent crush volumes, had caused soyabean oil stocks to fall to 760,000 tonnes on 12th March, following an 80,000 tonne decline over the week and represented the first time Chinese soyabean oil stocks had fallen below 800,000 tonnes in the past three years, according to the CNGOIC. This represented a fall of 60,000 tonnes m-o-m and 650,000 tonnes y-o-y.
With tight domestic supply of palm oil and rapeseed oil, soyabean oil demand has remained resilient, exacerbating the issues of lower crush volumes, which fell 230,000 tonnes w-o-w to 1.45 million tonnes on 12th March, a decrease of 20,000 tonnes y-o-y.
Looking forward, Chinese soyabean supply concerns are likely to ease as the cargo delays are expected to be temporary, in line with improving weather conditions.