The Mintec price of Chinese apple juice in the US increased by 13% to USD 8.65/gallon in the three months to 12th May 2021.
China, a significant exporter of apple juice to the US, has experienced high shipping costs in recent times, due to container shortages. This increase in transportation costs can be directly reflected in the pricing of Chinese apple juice. Shipping rates from China to the US for a 40ft container increased by 24% to USD 5,255/unit in the three months to 12th May. Moreover, Mintec data shows a correlation of 0.55 between the shipping cost and apple juice prices in the US (Chinese origin) since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020).
Meanwhile, China is also reported to have low apple juice concentrate (AJC) stocks, giving Chinese apple juice prices further bullish impetus. Spring production of Chinese AJC reached 15,000-20,000 tonnes, which means that total production is estimated to be below 400,000 tonnes for the 2020/21 marketing year, with pre-season estimates previously quoted to be in the region of 500,000-600,000 tonnes.
The Mintec price of Chinese apples has declined quarter on quarter as of May 2021, however, prices for the fresh market are still significantly above the industrial fruit price, and therefore of minimal interest to the processing sector.
Considering the above fundamentals, the Mintec price of Chinese apple juice prices in the US is projected to remain firm over the remainder of Q2 2021.