According to preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs and Mintec calculations, China imported an average of 10.37m barrels per day (bpd) in November, down from 11.58m bpd in October, representing a 10.4% month-on-month (m-o-m) decrease, a 9.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) fall.
In November, the Chinese economy moved deeper into deflation at -0.5% y-o-y, down from -0.2% y-o-y in October. However, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) returned to growth territory at 50.7 (a reading above 50 signals growth). Within the manufacturing sector, domestic demand grew in November, with new orders growing for the fourth consecutive month. However, international demand remains weak, as demonstrated by a decline in new overseas orders. Against the backdrop of greater domestic demand, job cuts slowed to a three-month low. Market players anticipate more government stimulus in the coming months, although they expect that the impact of any support, including how this might impact the crude oil market, may not be felt until the middle of 2024.
For reference, the Brent crude oil price [Mintec Code: BCRD] was $77.95/barrel at the close on 18th December, down 5.3% m-o-m, representing a 2.3% y-o-y fall.