According to the first ASOEX (The Association of Fruit Exporters of Chile) forecast for the 2021/22 MY, Chilean grape exports are forecast to rise 29.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 84.6 million standardized 8.2-kilo boxes. Chile is a major grape exporter worldwide, with the US being a key export market for Chilean table grapes. The expected rise in exports y-o-y is attributable to a production recovery in the industry in 2021/22 MY following a poor grape harvest in 2020/21 MY. In the last season, heavy erratic rainfall in Q1 2021 in key producing regions including Valparaíso, Metropolitana, and O’Higgins impacted the quantity of Chilean grapes available for harvest, thus causing a decline in total production and exports.
The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) projects that Chilean table grape production will rise 22% y-o-y to 805,000 metric tonnes. In 2021/22 MY, the production of grapes from Chile is forecast to be stronger with an estimated increase in cultivated area of new grape varieties. An increased acreage of new high yielding grape varieties, such as the red globe will provide Chilean growers with more potential to reach different markets, thus increasing export growth this season. Moreover, growers that have a diversified grape variety will reduce overall risk, allowing any potential losses to be offset. This is likely to provide growers with increased yields in the current season, and boost overall production figures y-o-y. The Chilean grape price increased 24% month-on-month in October to USD 3.29/kg in line with a seasonal trend. Prices in the short term are expected to rise, following an increase in export demand. However, over the long term prices are likely to decline following the expectation of rising production.