The average price of Brazilian papaya rose by 82% in the three weeks up to 1st December 2021, and up 25% year on year (y-o-y) to BRL 5.0/kg. The increase is attributed to tight supply following a sustained period of drought in key producing regions in Brazil. A combination of anomalous high temperatures and lower than average rainfall have negatively impacted papaya production.
Brazil is the second-largest papaya producer worldwide and a top exporter to the EU market. Papaya production has taken a hit due to the lack of rainfall throughout September to November 2021, which stunted the growth of the fruit. The conditions led to quality issues and high crop losses for farmers, resulting in a reported decline in total production. The extreme weather in Brazil is set to continue due to the resurgence of the La Niña phenomenon, possibly exacerbating the papaya shortage. La Niña conditions are likely to bring cooler than average sea surface temperatures, which could hinder production further, exerting additional upward pressure on prices. If these conditions do not improve, prices are expected to remain on an upward trajectory in December.
Brazil / Sep 2021 – Nov 2021/ Max. temperature (anomaly)
Source: Mintec Analytics