The Mintec Benchmark price of Brazilian orange juice rose by 30% month on month (m-o-m) to USD 1,780/MT in September, and remained stable at this level throughout October. The October average price is an increase of 35% year on year (y-o-y). The price increase is attributed to a tight supply of oranges in Brazil, the largest producer of both oranges and orange concentrates worldwide.
Brazilian orange production was hit following a sustained drought, which affected key producing areas in July through to October. The drought combined with frosts early in the season (June-July) resulted in high fruit droppage. Fundecitrus reduced its forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt to 267.9 million boxes, a decline of 9% from the previous forecast. As a result, in the 2021/22 season fewer fruits will be earmarked for the production of orange concentrate, limiting supply and thus exerting upward pressure on orange juice prices. CitrusBR expect orange juice demand to remain firm in 2022. Therefore, orange juice inventories are estimated to reach 170,000-190,000 tonnes in June 2022, a steep decline from 316,929 tonnes in June 2021.
Brazil / Jul 2021 – Oct 2021/ Precipitation (% change)
Jul Aug Sept Oct
Low Avg High Source: Mintec Analytics