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Asian white rice prices are projected to increase in the short term

November 16, 2021

1 mins read

In October 2021, the average price of white rice (5% broken) in Vietnam increased by 4.4% month-on-month (m-o-m) to USD 404.46/MT. The price increase is attributed to supply pressures due to the smaller crop projected for the 2021/22 MY in Vietnam and high global demand. In addition, the easing of social distancing measures after the re-escalation of COVID-19 cases (August 2021) in Vietnam has supported rice exports. According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Vietnamese rice exports grew for three consecutive months, and in September, they were 19% higher than the previous month at 593,624 tonnes. Consequently, the domestic supply of fresh paddy is running low. This could exert upward pressure on export prices over the next few months until the next harvest in early 2022.

The average price of Thailand white rice (5% broken) slightly increased by 0.8% m-o-m in October, at USD 338.5/MT. Thai rice exports are expected to rise in Q4 2021 as a weaker Thai Baht makes Thai rice more competitive and increases its global demand. Meanwhile, in India, a major producing and exporting country, the October average price of white rice (5% broken) decreased by 2.8% m-o-m to USD 363/MT due to a record high production estimate for the 2021/22 MY (510.7 million tonnes).

At the same time, high input and logistical costs have been supporting firm rice prices. Farmers report that rice production costs in Asia could rise as much as by 30% because of skyrocketing diesel and fertiliser prices.

 

Topics: Grains & Feed
Zanna Aleksahhina
Zanna Aleksahhina

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