China is the largest global supplier of apple juice, accounting for approximately 45% of total global exports. Therefore, the ongoing coronavirus is likely to impact the apple juice industry worldwide.
Approximately, two-thirds of the apple juice consumed in the US originates from China. Thus, apple juice shortages in the US are likely to be a result of two issues. Firstly, due to delays in transit from the ports in China to the one in the US. Secondly, cancellation of orders (contracts), as traders across the US are being skeptical about trading dynamics with China. As a result, US apple juice prices are expected to show a bullish trend in next six to twelve months. The average Mintec price of US apple juice (sourced from China) was up 2.5% y-o-y, at the end of February.
Furthermore, apple juice shortages in China could result in global importers diverting demand towards Poland, the second-largest exporter (14% market share). However, there are weather concerns around the mild temperatures so far this winter. The trees need around three weeks of repeated nightly freezing temperatures to allow for dormancy to build up energy for the bloom. The mild temperatures could also encourage an early bloom which would then leave the fruitlets at risk of a freeze. As a result, apple juice supplies from Poland are also projected to contract for the 2020/21 crop year.