Grain markets in the Black Sea region are entering the second half of winter under mounting operational and weather-related pressures, as both Ukraine and Russia contend with challenging export conditions. Market participants told Expana that logistical constraints and adverse weather are beginning to curb near-term shipment capacity, adding fresh uncertainty to supply flows from two of the world’s key wheat exporters.
Ukraine continues to face significant logistical and operational challenges, with export flows constrained by rising freight insurance costs, persistent disruptions and elevated risks. Sources told Expana that power outages, prolonged cold weather, insurance premiums rising to as much as 4% and repeated incidents of cargo damage are weighing heavily on shipments. According to several reports cited by market players, Ukraine’s wheat export potential has fallen to around 14.5 million mt, marking an 11-year low.
Weather conditions are adding further uncertainty. Expana heard that snow cover across parts of Ukraine has deteriorated, particularly in southern regions where it is now minimal. While temperatures have remained extremely low for an extended period, market participants said there is currently no firm evidence of widespread winter wheat damage. Risks are viewed as localised, with a clearer assessment only expected once spring vegetation resumes.
Russian exports are also facing near-term disruptions. Brokers and traders indicated that January wheat shipments are being reduced due to adverse weather conditions. Deep-water terminals reportedly lost close to half of their operating time during the first half of January.
Some traders noted that the Sea of Azov has been affected by ice, while congestion has built up at Novorossiysk. As a result, January wheat exports are now estimated at 3.0-3.2 million mt, with worst-case scenarios as low as 2.7-2.9 million mt.
According to market players, the first wave of frost in Russia was severe but less damaging than initially feared. However, a second and potentially harsher cold spell is expected later this week, with temperatures forecast to approach -30°C in parts of the Central and Volga regions, raising concerns over further logistical delays and crop risks.
Taken together, the logistical difficulties in Ukraine and the weather-related disruptions in Russia point to tighter Black Sea wheat availability in the near term. According to market players, reduced export volumes, higher insurance and freight costs and continued uncertainty over crop conditions could reinforce price volatility, particularly for nearby delivery periods.