Spanish 2021 almond production is projected to fall by 14.6% y-o-y, to 302,815 tonnes in-shell, compared with 354,390 tonnes last year, according to the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA). The production decline is attributed to frosts in the middle of March, as well as pollination problems in some of the traditional varieties such as Marcona.
Production in Andalusia, the top almond producing region in Spain, is forecast at 78,002 tonnes (in-shell), down from last year’s 99,575 tonnes (-22% y-o-y), according to MAPA. Output in Aragon is projected at 69,749, relatively steady y-o-y but a large drop in production is expected in Castilla-La Mancha, at 47,299 tonnes down 41% y-o-y, following significant frost damage. Murcia almond production is projected to grow by over 9,000 tonnes y-o-y in 2021, to 37,035 tonnes (+ 33% y-o-y).
Spanish almond prices have been moving in line with California almond pricing, rising significantly since July this year, with the Mintec price for comuna almonds (ex-warehouse Murcia) up 7% in the four-week period to 22nd September, to EUR 4.06/kg. Since the first week of July, the market has gone up by 34%.
The Mintec Benchmark Prices (MBP) of California standard 5% almonds remain significantly up since bottoming at USD 1.79/lbs in May, driven by drought concerns and continued robust demand. The benchmark hit a high of USD 2.48/lbs on 16th September, however, has since fallen slightly to USD 2.42/lbs on 30th September on the back of cooling demand.