The downward trend on Kenyan tea prices has slowed down in the last six months, resulting in a 1% decline on the previous average (November 18–April 19). Despite a lower output in 2019, Kenyan tea benefited from strong demand from importing markets in 2019. Up to July 2019, exports continued to increase, up by 7% y-o-y at 292m kg. Export volumes are likely to be impacted by the lower availability in the next six months, as well as by the political issues in key importing countries.
As Kenya’s lower production hasn’t impacted export volumes in the first half of 2019, it is likely that the Mombasa auctions will see lower availability in the next few months, supporting price increases. Given that Kenyan prices are very competitive compared to Indian CTC prices, it is likely that strong demand from Pakistan and Egypt will result in higher auction prices in Mombasa in the next six months.
From weather to political, all the factors impacting the tea market in Kenya, Sri Lanka and India have been analysed to provide a market outlook for the next three months. Mintec’s market outlooks (schedule) provide insights on factors shaping the market dynamics of various commodities, providing the opportunity for market participants to stay ahead of factors that will impact procurement decisions.