London and New York cocoa prices increased during the last 6 months, by 5% and 6% respectively compared to the October 2018-March 2019 period. Nevertheless, prices are still traded below the previous year average, due to the major prices volatility from January to August 2018.
The latest revised estimates from the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) for the marketing year 2018/19 (October-September) put the global cocoa bean production at 4.85m tonnes, up 4% compared to the record crop in 2017/18, adding downward pressure on global cocoa prices y-o-y.
ICE monitored port warehouse stocks of cocoa beans decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year, driven by concerns on the quality and the future availability of cocoa beans. The stocks to grindings ratio is expected to decrease at 36% in 2018/19 (from 38% in 2017/18), thus adding further upward pressure on prices.
From weather to political, all the factors impacting the global cocoa market have been analysed to provide a market outlook for the next six months. Mintec’s market outlooks (schedule) provide insights on factors shaping the market dynamics of various commodities, providing the opportunity for market participants to stay ahead of factors that will impact procurement decisions.