The EU’s banana average price dropped 9% y-o-y (Oct18-Sept 19 / Oct 17-Sept 18), as demand plunged on the back of the outbreak of Tropical race 4 (TR4) in one of the major exporting countries, Colombia. Heavy rainfall between May-July 19 and few hours of sunshine are likely to result in contracted banana production in Ecuador, the top supplier of bananas to the EU. The Ecuadorian exports are estimated to rise but at a slower rate in 2019/20, due to the uncertainty of demand from the EU.
The average price of US banana has dropped by 15% y-o-y (Oct 18-Sept 19 / Oct 17-Sept 18), driven by adequate domestic stocks availability. Besides, the demand decreases seasonally with the increase in temperatures - a significant price driver in the last six months.
From economical to political, all the factors impacting the banana market have been analysed to provide a market outlook for the next twelve months. Mintec’s market outlooks (schedule) provide insights on factors shaping the market dynamics of various commodities, providing the opportunity for market participants to stay ahead of factors that will impact procurement decisions.