The six-month average global aluminium price (Mar-Aug) declined by 26% y-o-y, as a result of the manufacturing global slowdown, especially in the construction and automotive industries.
The US-China trade war has added downward pressure on prices of base metals, as the escalating tensions damaged the global supply chain.
China’s weakening economic growth encouraged the exports of competitive aluminium to foreign markets, thus, likely to add further downward pressure on prices in the next six months.
Despite a reduced global aluminium output in H1 2019, mainly driven by China and Europe’s low production, the bearish trend is likely to continue in the next six months. An expected increase in aluminium production in H2 2019, coupled with continuous sluggish demand from the automotive and construction industries, are likely to pressure prices down. Additionally, Chinese aluminium exports are unlikely to decline, as a result of the depreciating Chinese yuan, encouraging Chinese goods exports to foreign markets. Lower alumina prices, following resumption of production in Brazil, is predicted to be counterbalanced by the rising energy costs, squeezing aluminium smelters margins which could prompt producers to reduce their production capacity rates.
From weather to political, all the factors impacting the global aluminium market have been analysed to provide a market outlook for the next six months. Mintec’s market outlooks (schedule) provide insights on factors shaping the market dynamics of various commodities, providing the opportunity for market participants to stay ahead of factors that will impact procurement decisions.