The Mintec mango prices from April to September (the current 2018/19 season) were up 57% compared to the same time a year ago (2017/18), however, the prices were only up 8% compared to the 2015/16 and 2016/17 averages. Although prices currently seem high, it was the unusually low priced season last year that has exaggerated this movement.
Previously in the 2017/18 season, mango production in India increased by approximately 8% y-o-y. The harvest began slowly as the crop was affected by adverse weather in coastal areas. However, when the production was in full swing, the market was flooded with mangoes. During the same time, demand from the international markets such as Europe and the US weakened Meanwhile, import demand from the UAE decreased, driven by fears of Nipah virus. Thus, exports from India fell 7% y-o-y in 2017/18. As a result, the prices plunged 47% between April to September 2018 compared to the same period in 2017 and were down 49% compared to the three previous year averages.
Prices start seasonally rising after June/July, as the fruit moves towards the end of the season. The current season production dropped by 3% to 20.95m tonnes, thus, the price increase now seen is the effect of reduced output and its comparison to meagre prices in 2018.