The Mintec price of Californian almonds continues strengthening, rising 5% m-o-m and 10% since a dip in September when markets slid on optimism over larger-than-expected production in California in 2019/20.
Since September, prices have been firming up, driven by robust global demand. The latest position report for October from the Almond Board of California shows almond year-to-date shipment up 7% y-o-y, with export demand growing by 12% y-o-y. Shipments to the domestic US market have declined by 3% y-o-y. October shipments reached 265.5 million pounds, a record figure for this time of the year, with a large volume of shipments also expected for November.
The crop receipts to date are 2% ahead of the last year at 1.59bn pounds. This year has seen geographical variations in yields across California, with December and January position reports probably providing a better picture on the size of this year’s crop.
However, the production in California is still anticipated to exceed USDA’s official estimate of 2.2bn pounds and settle between 2.3 and 2.4bn pounds.