December 2016 Market Report

Avian flu outbreaks in the EU have caused the culling of birds in affected areas, increasing the prices of EU eggs and Swedish chicken. New Zealand lamb prices fell, due to low exports to the UK as a result of the weaker GBP. Arabica coffee prices fell over improved weather conditions in Brazil.

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Brussel sprouts (UK) +32% Lemon (ES) -10%
Potato (EU) +14% Arabica coffee ICE US -9%
Brent crude oil ICE London +12% Onion (EU) -8%
Eggs (NL) +10% Lamb (NZ) -5%
Rapeseed oil (CA) +8% Orange Juice (US) -5%
Pork (UK) +6% SMP (EU) -1%

All percentage changes in this report refer to month-on-month price changes.

Soft Commodities

Arabica coffee prices fell on ICE US (-9%), due to improved weather conditions in Brazil towards the end of the flowering stage, after dry weather earlier in 2016 caused concerns over poor harvest prospects. Robusta coffee prices rose on London ICE (+4%) as rainfall in Vietnam disrupted the harvest. Sugar prices fell on London ICE (-6%) and ICE US (-5%) as hedge funds exited the market, over growing confidence that global production will exceed consumption in the 2017/18 season. Tea prices fell in India (-3%), Kenya (-2%) and Sri Lanka (-1%). Tea growing conditions in all the major producing reasons have been favourable in recent weeks, which is expected to boost production in 2017. Cocoa bean prices fell on both London ICE (-8%) and ICE US (-7%) as hedge funds reduced investments, due to expectations that the global market will experience a supply surplus in the current 2016/17 season. Cocoa butter (-14%), and powder (-6%) prices also fell in the UK. EU molasses remained stable (0%).

Oils & Fats

Soyabean oil prices rose in Rotterdam (+4%) and Argentina (+1%), however fell on CBOT US (-3%). Rapeseed oil prices rose in Canada (+8%) and Rotterdam (+5%), as concerns over tight global supplies pushed prices higher. Palm oil prices rose in Malaysia (+5%), Rotterdam (+5%) and Indonesia (+3%). Palm kernel oil prices also rose in Rotterdam (+14%), Malaysia (+10%) and Indonesia (+7%), climbing to five year highs as production is expected to remain tight until the second half of the current season. Coconut oil prices rose in Rotterdam (+6%) and the Philippines (+1%). Subdued by this season’s record production, sunflower oil prices only rose slightly in NW Europe (+1%) and Ukraine (+1%), while remaining stable in Argentina (0%) and Russia (0%). Extra virgin olive oil prices rose in Spain (+4%), but remained stable in Italy (0%). Lampante oil prices rose in Spain (+4%) and linseed oil prices increased in Argentina (+1%).

Grains

Maize prices fell on CBOT US (-3%), in Argentina (-2%) and in Brazil (-2%), however remained stable on Euronext Paris (0%). Milling wheat prices fell on CBOT US (-5%), ASX Australia (-2%) and Euronext Paris (-1%), due to an upward revision in 2016/17 production forecast. However, milling wheat prices increased in Germany (+3%) and the UK (+1%). Feed wheat prices rose in the UK (+2%), remained stable in Hungary (0%) and fell on ICE Europe (-2%). Durum wheat prices fell in France (-6%), Italy (-6%) and on ICE Canada (-3%), however remained stable in the US (0%). Barley feed prices fell on ASX Australia (-8%), remained stable on ICE Canada (0%), but rose in France (+3%) and Germany (+3%). Basmati rice prices rose in India (+2%), due to adverse weather conditions, but fell in Pakistan (-1%). White paddy prices rose in Vietnam (+2%) due to unfavourable weather, however prices fell on CBOT US (-1%). Oat prices fell in Finland (-2%) and remained stable on CBOT US (0%).

Ingredients

Turkish hazelnut prices remained stable (0%). Almond prices fell in the US (-3%) and Spain (-2%). Peanut prices rose in Argentina (+3%), Brazil (+2%) and the US (+2%), due to high demand from crushers in China and a fall in supplies from the US. Cashew prices fell in Vietnam (-9%), while pine nut prices fell in China (-6%). For dried fruit, sultana prices fell in the EU (-4%), however remained stable in Turkey (0%), and increased in China (+1%). In Turkey, dried apricot prices fell (-6%), while raisin prices also fell (-1%). For spices, black pepper prices rose in Indonesia (+12%), Malaysia (+7%) and Vietnam (+3%) however, remained stable in India (0%). White pepper prices also rose in Indonesia (+11%) and Vietnam (+2%), however fell in the EU (-2%) and Malaysia (-2%). Prices on India’s NCDEX rose for both Turmeric (+6%) and Coriander (+6%). Dried garlic prices rose in India (+19%) and China (+2%). Chilli prices fell in India (-14%). In Germany, prices rose for Indian sesame seed (+3%) and Czech poppy seed (+1%).

Fruit

Apple prices remained stable on average in the EU (0%), with prices rising in Poland (+10%), remaining stable in the UK (0%), but falling in Germany (-5%). Pear prices fell on average in the EU (-2%), with prices down in Italy (-7%), Spain (-7%) and the UK (-1%). In addition, pear prices remained stable in France (0%) and Poland (0%). Banana prices fell in Spain (-6%) and Poland (-2%), but remained stable in the UK (0%), and rose in Germany (+1%). Prices for grapes rose in the UK (+43%) and Spain (+25%). Lemons were down in Spain (-10%), but remained stable in the UK (0%). Lime prices rose in Germany (+13%), but remained steady in the UK (0%). Grapefruit prices were unchanged in Spain (0%). Apple juice prices fell in China (-2%). Orange juice prices were down in the US (-5%), however remain up 38% y-o-y. Orange production in Florida is forecast at 72m boxes in 2016/17, a decline of 12% compared to previous season.

Vegetables

Potato prices rose on average in the EU (+14%). Prices were up in Spain (+26%), France (+23%), Belgium (+16%), the UK (+11%) and Germany (+8%). Potato production in the top five North West European producers has been estimated at 24.6m tonnes in 2016, down 3% y-o-y. Onion prices fell on average in the EU (-8%), with declines seen in the UK (-34%) and the Netherlands (-22%). However, onion prices rose in Germany (+7%), France (+4%) and Spain (+1%). Tomato prices fell in the UK (-6%), but cherry tomatoes were up in Germany (+27%). Brussel sprouts rose in the UK (+32%), due to increased demand in the run up to Christmas. Prices also rose in France (+8%) but fell in Germany (-3%).  Runner beans were down (-2%) in Germany. Broccoli prices rose in the UK (+21%) and Germany (+9%), but fell in France (-4%) and Spain (-15%). Leek prices were down in the UK (-25%) and France (-4%) but rose in Germany (+3%). Lettuce prices increased on average in the EU (+12%). Carrot prices fell in the UK (-6%) and Germany (-3%), however remained stable in France (0%).

Meat & Poultry

Deadweight beef prices rose in the EU (+4%), with prices up in the UK (+2%), Ireland (+2%) and Germany (+1%), while falling in France (-1%). Elsewhere, beef prices rose in Brazil (+3%) and Uruguay (+1%), but fell in Australia (-1%). Lamb prices fell in New Zealand (-5%) caused by low exports to the UK, due to a weak GBP. In the EU, lamb prices rose (+4%), with prices up in the UK (+2%). Pork prices rose in the EU (+3%), with prices increasing in the UK (+6%), due to a fall in production. In addition, prices increased in Denmark (+5%), Austria (+5%), Belgium (+5%), Hungary (+4%), the Netherlands (+4%) and Poland (+3%). Elsewhere, US pork prices rose (+21%), due to a fall in slaughterings. Chicken deadweight prices remained stable in the EU (0%). Chicken prices rose in Portugal (+13%), Sweden (+8%), Italy (+5%), the UK (+3%), Denmark (+1%) and Spain (+1%), remained stable in Germany (0%) and France (0%), but fell in the Czech Republic (-1%), Belgium (-1%), Hungary (-2%) and Poland (-9%). In addition, chicken prices fell in Brazil (-5%).

Milk & Dairy

Butter prices rose in the EU (+2%), as milk fat supplies remain low. Butter prices rose in Poland (+12%) and France (+4%), remained stable in Belgium (0%) and Germany (0%), but fell in the UK (-2%). In addition, butter prices rose in the US (+7%) and New Zealand (+2%). Prices for cheese in the EU rose for Emmental (+8%), Edam (+6%), Italian Parmesan (+4%) and Gouda (+1%), however remained stable for UK Cheddar (0%). Elsewhere, US cheese prices fell for mozzarella (-8%) and cheddar (-4%). SMP prices fell in the EU (-1%), due to volumes being released from the private intervention scheme. SMP prices rose in the US (+8%), but fell in New Zealand (-2%). WMP prices rose in the EU (+5%), with prices up in the Netherlands (+10%), Belgium (+9%), France (+4%) and Germany (+4%). Shell egg prices rose in the EU (+6%), caused by a fall in egg layer numbers as a result of bird flu outbreaks. EU shell egg prices rose in France (+10%), the Netherlands (+10%), Germany (+8%), the UK (+5%) and Italy (+3%). Prices for processing eggs in the EU rose for egg white liquids (+17%), egg whole powder (+4%), egg yolk liquids (+3%) and egg yolk powder (+2%).

Chemicals and Plastics

Petrochemicals prices in the EU rose for benzene (+14%), styrene (+9%), butadiene (+6%), toluene (+4%) and paraxylene (+4%), remained stable for orthoxylene (0%), while falling for propylene (-2%) and ethylene (-10%). Plastic prices in the EU fell due to low demand for PP (-2%), HDPE (-2%), LDPE (-2%), LLDPE (-2%) and PVC (-2%), but rose for PET (+1%) and PS (+7%). Ethylene glycol prices rose in the US (+7%) and the EU (+3%). Plastics prices in China rose for PET (+8%), butadiene (+5%) and LDPE (+1%), remained stable for HDPE (0%), but fell for PVC (-1%) and LLDPE (-1%). Hydrochloric acid prices fell in Italy (-5%), while sulphuric acid EU (0%) remained stable. Fertiliser prices in the US rose for urea (+4%), remained stable phosphoric acid (0%) and fell for DAP (-1%).

Pulp & Paper

Global pulp deliveries rose 8% m-o-m to 4.07m tonnes in November. Global shipments also rose 4.0% y-o-y to 4.07m tonnes in the same period. Producer inventories stood at 39 days of supply in November, unchanged m-o-m but up by 3 days y-o-y. Bleached softwood kraft (BSK) pulp shipments rose 4% m-o-m in November to 2.00m tonnes, while bleached hardwood kraft (BHK) pulp rose 15% m-o-m to 1.99m. EU pulp prices rose for NBSK (+3%) and BHK (+3%). In addition, prices in the EU rose for coated paper (+1%), remained stable for kraftliner (0%) and newsprint (0%), but fell for testliner (-1%) and fluting waste based (-1%). US prices remained stable for NBSK (0%). Chinese pulp prices rose for BHK (+6%) and NBSK (+3%).

Energy

Brent crude oil prices in ICE London (+12%) and Light sweet crude oil prices in NYMEX US (+11%) rose, due to OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to cut production for the first time since 2001. The new deal will cut production by 1.2m barrels a day (bbl/d) for the first six months of 2017. Diesel prices rose in the US (+11%) and the EU (+10%), due to a fall in stocks. Petrol prices rose in the US (+14%) and the EU (+10%) on the back of rising crude oil prices. Gas oil prices rose on ICE EU (+10%). Natural gas prices rose in NYMEX US (+5%), due to higher demand with the onset of colder weather. However, natural gas prices fell for Bacton terminal NBP (-5%) and on ICE London (-5%) with the return to service of the Rough storage site. Coal prices rose in the US (+7%), but fell in the EU (-3%).

Metals

Base metal prices on the LME generally fell due to profit taking ahead of the end of the year. Aluminium (-2%), copper (-2%), nickel (-2%) and tin (-1%) all fell, however lead (0%) remained stable. Zinc (+2%) ended the month up overall despite a decline in prices from the second week in December. Zinc prices generally rose in 2016, due to falling mine supplies as well as strong demand in China. Global steel prices rose, supported by an increase in raw material costs. In the EU, cold rolled steel (CR) (+16%) and hot rolled steel (HR) (+12%) increased. Elsewhere, HR (+11%) and CR (+8%) steel in the US rose, while HR (+9%) and CR (+6%) steel in China was also up.

Others

Nylon chips (+31%), Rubber TH (+16%), Rubber SG (+15%), Rubber MY (+12%), Polyester (+11%), Wool AU (+3%), Viscose CN (-1%), Cotton US (-3%), Lumber US (-4%), Wool NZ (-19%).

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