January 2017 Market Report

UK lettuce and Spanish courgette prices rose, due to heavy rains and cold weather in the major growing regions from Southern Spain. Falling maize prices in Brazil resulted in a decline in feed costs, reducing chicken prices. Sugar prices have risen due to cane shortages in India.

Up Down
Lettuce (UK) +144% Orange Juice (US) -13%
Courgette (ES) +56% Chicken (BR) -12%
Arabica Coffee ICE (US) +17% Lamb (UK) -8%
Basmati Rice (PK) +13% Apple Juice (CN) -6%
Pork (US) +6% Eggs (EU) -5%
Cashews (VN) +4% Soyabean Oil Rotterdam -4%

All percentage changes in this report refer to month-on-month price changes.

Soft Commodities

Arabica prices rose on ICE US (+17%), due to concerns that dry weather in Brazil and heavy rains in parts of Central America could reduce output for 2017/18. Robusta prices rose on London ICE (+8%), due to ongoing concerns over lower production in the 2016/17 season from major producing countries. Sugar prices rose on ICE US (+10%) and on London ICE (+8%) as mills in India stopped crushing due to a cane shortage. Sugar mills in India usually operate from November to April, but 25 mills had closed by the end of 2016. Tea prices rose in Sri Lanka (+13%) and Kenya (+7%). However, tea prices fell in India (-3%), due to recent data that showed production in India rose 15% y-o-y to 127.1m kgs in November. Cocoa bean prices fell on London ICE (-2%), but were stable on ICE US (0%). Cocoa powder (+3%) rose, but butter was stable in the UK (0%).

Oils & Fats

Soyabean oil prices fell in Rotterdam (-4%) and Argentina (-2%), due to processors cutting prices to boost sales. Soyabean oil prices remained stable in CBOT US (0%). Rapeseed oil prices rose in Rotterdam (+1%) and remained stable in Canada (0%). Palm oil prices rose in Indonesia (+2%), remained stable in Malaysia (0%), but fell in Rotterdam (-1%). Palm kernel oil prices rose in Indonesia (+12%), Malaysia (+10%) and Rotterdam (+8%), due to low supplies of lauric oils (including both palm kernel and coconut oil). Coconut oil prices rose in Rotterdam (+7%) and the Philippines (+2%). Sunflower oil prices fell in Russia (-3%) and Argentina (-1%), however they rose in Ukraine (+1%) and NW Europe (+1%). Extra virgin olive oil prices rose in Spain (+6%) and Italy (+4%), due to poor harvests in the EU in the 2016/17 season. Lampante oil prices rose in Spain (+6%). Linseed oil prices fell in Argentina (-3%).

Grains

Maize prices rose on CBOT US (+7%), in Argentina (+3%) and on Euronext Paris (+2%), mostly driven by concerns over lower production in France, however maize prices fell in Brazil (-6%). Milling wheat prices rose on CBOT US (+9%), in the UK (+5%), on Euronext Paris (+3%) and in Germany (+2%), but fell on ASX Australia (-2%). Feed wheat prices rose on ICE Europe (+7%) and in the UK (+6%) over concerns that recent severe cold weather in Europe could damage crops, but prices remained stable in Hungary (0%). Durum wheat prices fell in France (-6%) and on ICE Canada (-3%), but remained stable in the US (0%) and rose in Italy (+3%). Barley feed prices rose on ASX Australia (+3%) and remained stable in France (0%), while falling in Germany (-1%) and also on ICE Canada (-1%). Basmati rice prices rose in Pakistan (+13%) and India (+10%). White paddy prices rose in Vietnam (+8%) and on CBOT US (+6%). Oats prices rose on CBOT US (+9%) and in Finland (+3%). Rye prices remained stable in Finland (0%).

Ingredients

Hazelnut prices fell in Turkey (-2%). Almond prices were down in the US (-1%), but remained stable in Spain (0%). Peanut prices rose in the US (+2%), Argentina (+1%) and Brazil (+1%), due a revision in US peanut production for 2016/17, now estimated down 5% y-o-y at 2.6m tonnes. Cashew prices rose in Vietnam (+4%). Pine nut prices remained stable in China (0%). For dried fruit, prices in Turkey rose for sultanas (+3%) and raisins (+1%). However, raisin prices fell in the US (-2%). Dried apricot prices fell in Turkey (-1%) and desiccated coconut prices remained steady in the Philippines (0%). For spices, black pepper prices rose in Malaysia (+14%), but remained unchanged in Vietnam (0%) and fell in India (-3%) and Indonesia (-5%). White pepper prices rose in Malaysia (+3%), but remained stable in Vietnam (0%) and Indonesia (0%). In India, prices on NCDEX rose for coriander (+4%), however remained stable for turmeric (0%). In India, chilli prices fell (-11%), as did dried garlic prices (-6%), but ginger prices were stable (0%). Prices for Czech poppy seed (-1%) were down in Germany.

Fruit

Apple prices rose on average in the EU (+3%), with increases seen in the UK (+8%) and Germany (+1%), however prices remained stable in Poland (0%) for industrial apples. Pear prices rose on average in the EU (+6%), with prices up in the UK (+20%), Italy (+7%) and France (+1%). However, prices fell in Poland (-16%) and remained unchanged in Spain (0%). Banana prices were up in the UK (+22%), Spain (+6%) and Poland (+5%), but declined slightly in Germany (-2%). Grape prices fell in the UK (-27%), but rose in Spain (+21%). Lemon prices were up in Spain (+11%), but remained stable in the UK (0%). Lime prices rose in the UK (+25%) and Germany (+10%). Grapefruit prices remained stable in Spain (0%). For juices, orange juice prices fell on ICE US (-13%), due to a forecast 27% y-o-y increase in Brazilian orange production in 2017/18. Apple juice prices fell in China (-6%).

Vegetables

Potato prices rose on average in the EU (+4%) with increases seen in France (+15%), Poland (+6%), Germany (+4%), Belgium (+4%) and the UK (+2%), while prices fell marginally in Spain (-1%). EU potato production in 2016/17 is estimated at 24.6m tonnes, down 3% y-o-y. Onion prices were up on average in the EU (+1%), with prices up in Poland (+20%), France (+8%) and Spain (+1%). However, onion prices fell in the Netherlands (-25%), while remaining unchanged in the UK (0%) and Germany (0%). Tomato prices rose on average in the UK (+53%) with cherry tomatoes also up in Germany (+15%). Cucumber prices were up in the UK (+10%) and France (+6%). Lettuce prices rose in the UK (+144%), while courgette prices rose from Spain (+56%), due to adverse weather reducing Spanish supplies. Runner beans prices increased in Germany (+5%). Carrot prices rose in Germany (+6%) and Poland (+4%), however remained stable in France (0%), but fell in the UK (-6%).

Meat & Poultry

Deadweight beef prices fell in the EU (-1%), due to higher slaughterings. Beef prices rose in Germany (+3%), Ireland (+2%) and France (+1%), but fell in the UK (-1%). Elsewhere, beef prices rose in Uruguay (+4%), Brazil (+3%) and Australia (+2%), mostly caused by low supplies in Australia and high international demand. Lamb prices fell in New Zealand (-3%) and the EU (-3%). Lamb prices fell in Spain (-13%), Italy (-12%), France (-10%), the UK (-9%), and Greece (-7%), however prices remained stable in Germany (0%). Pork prices fell in the EU (-1%), mostly driven by a slowdown in demand from China. Within the EU, prices were down in the UK (-3%), Denmark (-3%) and Belgium (-3%), however prices rose in the Netherlands (+2%) and France (+2%). Elsewhere, US pork prices rose (+6%), due to high domestic demand and a fall in pork inventories in storage. Chicken deadweight prices remained stable in the EU (0%). Chicken prices rose in Sweden (+14%), Belgium (+6%), Hungary (+3%), Spain (+2%), and Poland (+1%), but fell in Germany (-1%), Italy (-3%) and the UK (-3%). Chicken prices fell in Brazil (-12%), due to a fall in domestic maize feed costs.

Milk & Dairy

Butter prices fell in the EU (-3%), driven by a slowdown in demand and an increase in volumes released from the Private Storage Aid (PSA). Within the EU, butter prices fell in Germany (-6%), Poland (-3%), the UK (-2%), Belgium (-2%) and France (-1%). Elsewhere, butter prices fell in the US (-1%) and remained stable in New Zealand (0%). Prices for cheese in the EU fell for Edam (-4%), Gouda (-3%) and Emmental (-1%), remained stable for UK Cheddar (0%), but rose for Italian Parmesan (+4%). Cheddar prices rose in New Zealand (+4%), but fell in the US (-1%). SMP prices rose in the EU (+1%), due to low supplies. Prices rose in France (+1%), but remained stable in Germany (0%) and the Netherlands (0%). SMP prices fell in the US (-3%), due to high milk availability, while remaining stable in New Zealand (0%). A fall in demand for EU WMP resulted in prices falling in the Netherlands (-4%), France (-2%), Belgium (-1%) and Germany (-1%). In addition, WMP prices fell in New Zealand (-10%). Shell egg prices fell in the EU (-5%), due to a slowdown in demand. EU shell egg prices fell in the Netherlands (-15%), Belgium (-12%), France (-12%), Germany (-10%), Poland (-4%), Spain (-4%), the UK (-3%). Prices for processing eggs fell (-11%).

Chemicals and Plastics

Petrochemical prices in the EU rose for benzene (+24%), styrene (+13%), ethylene (+7%), propylene (+5%), paraxylene (+4%) and toluene (+1%), but remained stable for butadiene (0%) and orthoxylene (0%). Ethylene glycol prices rose in the US (+7%) and the EU (+3%). Plastic prices in the EU rose for PET (+11%), PS (+5%), PP (+5%), PVC (+2%), HDPE (+1%), LDPE (+1%) and LLDPE (+1%), due to rising feedstock costs and higher seasonal demand. Plastic and plastic feedstock prices also rose in China for ethylene (+12%), butadiene (+5%), PET (+4%) and LDPE (+1%), but remained stable for PVC (0%) and HDPE (0%) and fell for LLDPE (-3%). Prices for fertilisers in the US rose for urea (+5%) and DAP (+1%), but fell for phosphoric acid (-1%).

Pulp & Paper

Global pulp shipments rose 6% m-o-m and 5% y-o-y in December. Global inventories fell by one day m-o-m but remained stable y-o-y at 35 days of supply. European softwood pulp inventories rose 7% m-o-m and 5% y-o-y. In days, inventories stood at 18 days of consumption, up one day m-o-m and y-o-y. EU prices fell for NBSK (-2%) and BHK (-1%), due to an increase in European supply. Prices in the EU fell for testliner (-1%) and fluting (-1%), but remained stable for kraftliner (0%), newsprint (0%) and coated paper (0%). NBSK pulp prices rose in the US (+1%). Chinese pulp prices rose for BHK (+4%) and NBSK (+2%) due to a delay in manufacturing start up, limiting Chinese supplies.

Energy

Brent crude oil prices fell on ICE London (-3%), as did light sweet crude oil prices on NYMEX US (-2%), over concerns the agreed production cuts between OPEC and non-OPEC countries would not be met. Diesel prices fell in the US (-1%) on the back of lower crude oil prices and a weaker US dollar, but remained stable in the EU (0%). Petrol prices rose in the US (+5%) and the EU (+2%) after production cuts in crude oil were agreed. Gas oil prices fell on ICE EU (-2%). Natural gas prices rose at the Bacton terminal NBP (+13%), due to increased demand for power generation. Natural gas prices fell on ICE London (-3%) as supply fears eased with more LNG deliveries expected. In addition, natural gas prices fell on NYMEX US (-11%), due to forecasts of milder weather reducing demand. Coal prices rose in the US (+4%) as stocks decline, but fell in the EU (-4%), with concerns over low demand in China.

Metals

Base metal prices on the LME mostly rose with lead (+14%), aluminium (+8%), zinc (+8%) and copper (+7%) all up, but tin (-2%) and nickel (-5%) fell. Prices in the EU rose for hot rolled steel (HR) (+5%), but remained stable for cold rolled steel (CR) (0%). Prices in China fell for CR (-1%) and HR (-1%), due to production restrictions being lifted. Prices in the US rose for HR (+5%) and CR (+2%), due to low stocks and increased demand. Chinese iron prices rose for ore (+15%) and pellets (+1%). For precious metals, prices in London rose for Palladium (+13%), Platinum (+10%), Silver (+7%), Gold (+5%) and Rhodium (+1%).

Others

Nylon CN (+24%), Rubber MY (+21%), Rubber TH (+21%), Cotton US (+7%), Viscose CN (+6%), Acrylic fibre CN (+6%), Lumber US (+5%) and Raw silk CN (+3%), Polyester CN (-2%), Wool NZ (-4%).